A Weighty Issue

Posted by Anthony Wilson on Jul. 22, 2008 at 11:48 PM

Yesterday's news that Dmitri Young has been placed on the 15-day disabled list to "get his diabetes under control" is a tough one to address. On one hand, it's easy to become petty and make jokes about his ballooning weight and his (lack of an) off-season regimen. To be truthful, I am guilty of calling Young some derogatory names based on his weight.

But it's not that simple. Diabetes is a serious disease and should not be taken lightly. Unchecked diabetes is dangerous, even deadly. Which is why it's smart of the Nationals to send Young down to the minors to allow him to concentrate on reducing his eight and controlling his diabetes.

But the move begs the question, "Why did the Nationals wait so long?" Also, how much is Young to blame?

Clearly, Young's weight was an issue from before the regular season started. The Washington Post covered it on March 5 (and on March 11, 2007), noting that he came in to camp at 298 lbs. I say hogwash. He's 320 or larger. Regardless, even if he really is the 300 lbs at which he is listed, he is only 6'2". I'm 6'2", and 205 lbs. and I'm considered 'overweight' by body mass index standards. By BMI standards, Young -- whose BMI is 35 -- is considered morbidly obese because of the comorbidity with diabetes.

"… people are considered to have morbid obesity if they have a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or more or they have a BMI of between 35 and 40 and other significant disease (for example, diabetes, high blood pressure) that may be improved if they lose weight."

What the heck was the Nationals front office even thinking bringing him up with the big club before he's ready? If I'm a GM who just gave a guy a two-year, $11 million deal and the guy -- who already was known for his largesse -- shows up nearly 40 lbs HEAVIER than the season before, do I just turn my head? The answer is no. The March Post article makes it clear that many members of the Nationals were concerned about Young's health, while others were upset about his girth. Then why didn't either side do something about it? Either you send his butt to go get training because you're pissed that he's fat, or you send his butt to go get training because you're concerned about his health. Either way, you send his butt to go get training. You don't put him in a Major League lineup.

But it's not just the Nationals. It's clear that Young needs to lose weight -- a lot of it. And no matter how many fad diets (Atkins, pills, exercise machines, etc.) are out there, there are two undeniable things that, when used together, usually result in weight loss. They are:

1) Eat less

2) Move more

Now, I'm no stranger to diabetes. My grandmother had it and didn't monitor it well (she was a fan of Friendly's sundaes), and died in her early 70s. My father developed type II (adult onset) diabetes in his early 60s. He followed his doctor's advice, starting eating better (he cut out his favorite, cookies, and desserts altogether) and walking daily. He lost 20 lbs. and rarely has a problem with his blood sugar levels. In fact, he never takes anything -- no drugs, no shots -- to control his blood sugar. He doesn't need to.

I'm certainly not saying it's easy. There is work involved. But if my 66-year-old father can get off his butt and control his diabetes, so can Young. After all, Young has the benefit of being able to hire a chef and access to some of the best personal trainers in the world, all the equipment he needs, and some of the best doctors.

In the end, the Nationals and Young blew it. The Nationals should've helped sooner, and Young should've helped himself sooner.

 Permalink | Posted in Fitness, Front Office, Players |  Comments (3)       

Whether They Knew It or Not...

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jul. 22, 2008 at 9:15 PM

We knew that shortstop Cristian Guzman was in talks with the Nationals over the last few weeks about a contract extension. They finally came to terms on a deal on Tuesday, wherein Guzie will earn $16 million for his services through 2010.

I've been going back and forth about this situation for the last few weeks, but the argument that the deal makes sense has to be listened to. Guzie's been the Nats' best hitter this year. With a bit of luck, we should enjoy more of the same good performance in the next couple of seasons.

Even so, that's a big pile of dough. I don't see any reason to retract my assertion that, in committing to Guzman, the Nats, having parted with that big pile, need to start right now on building a winner. For unless the Nats make an unlikely trade of Guzman for prospects, he's here to stay for a while.

Will Emilio Bonifacio -- acquired Tuesday from the D-Backs in what looks to be a good deal for the Nats that sent erstwhile closer Jon Rauch to the Snakes -- be a part of the winning mix?

That's not at all clear to me. While the young Bonifacio is a worthy return for a reliever who may well be past his peak, his limited MLB numbers are dismal. In the minors, he's projecting as a decent leadoff guy, albeit something of a slap hitter with little patience (.302 / .348 / .387 this season with 27 walks over 402 plate appearances in triple-A Tucson).

But with Felipe Lopez treading water, and Ronnie Belliard having (at least in my view) lost a step or two at second, something needed to be done.

In any case, there's little doubt the Nats are trying to build the core of a respectable lineup. Now they need to go to the next level and spend what it takes to get a couple of decent starting pitchers.

Yeah, that'll set 'em back at least $10 million a year per, but what's the alternative? Putting Guzman, a handful of other names, and a handful of stiffs onto the field behind hard-luck hurlers?

It wouldn't be without precedent. The team up the road did it for years.

There's no need to reprise that situation. (Especially since the Orioles seem to be working mighty hard on righting their ship.)

The Nats train is moving out of the station. Let 'er roll.

 Permalink | Posted |  Comments (3)       

So who will close games?

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Jul. 22, 2008 at 9:04 PM

First off, congrats to Guzy for his extension. Couple this with Bonifacio's addition, Zimmerman's return and this looks like a nice 3/4 of an infield to build upon. Especially given Bonifacio's solid projection as a leadoff hitter, the Nationals can finally solve that speed quandary what what appears to be a talented player. Kudos!

Adios Rauch, we will miss you (honestly, I always was a Rauch fan). WIth his departure, and his increased value as a converted starter, can the Nationals catch more lightnin in a bottle and see what other Billy Beane-type converted closers they have on staff...because when you have a team full of failed pitching prospects, conventional wisdom says they should make decent bullpen guys, but I digress.

So here is a list of guys that I think might make serviceable closers:

• Saul Rivera--I doubt it, he is better suited as a stop gap, but given his experience he could get it in the short term.
• Joel Hanrahan--word is that Hanrahan has electric stuff, but no idea what to do with it...PERFECT! He might be able to perfect that craft with the Nationals this season as the closer or potential setup man with eyes on the 2009 gig
• Brian Sanches--Sanches has struggled mightily in 2008 MLB show, though his AAA stats show some solid bullpen work. Could parlay into full time relief role with MLB club in 2009 with continued audition in 2008
• Zech Zinicola--ZZ Top! This is the fave for the gig in 2009. ZZ was selected to be a closer and had an awesome 2007, and an awful 2008. Let's hope that this second half he can work it out at AAA with a September callup to see if he will be ready to have the job in 2009.
• Ryan Wagner--um, I guess he has a shot though I think his arm is complete Robocop at this point after two surgeries...longshot, but at least he has some MLB experience.
• Chad Cordero--with Rauch traded, do the Nats have any plans for the Chief? From his surgery timetable, it might be 2010 before we hear from him, and at that point, he will be out of the picture
• Longshots for the pen:
  • Adam Carr--Double A, playing good ball
  • Levale Speigner--not sure where his future place will reside (SP or RP), but he has pitched okay at AAA.
  •  

 

 Permalink | Posted       

BREAKING NEWS: Rauch Traded to D-Backs for 2B Bonifacio

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 22, 2008 at 5:02 PM

From the press announcement:

"The Washington Nationals today acquired second baseman Emilio Bonifacio from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitcher Jon Rauch. Bonifacio was optioned to Triple-A Columbus of the International League. Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden made the announcement.

The switch-hitting Bonifacio entered the 2008 season rated as Arizona’s No. 6 prospect according to Baseball America. The same publication also cited Bonifacio as its 2008 Winter Player of the Year—an award encompassing the three Caribbean winter leagues (Dominican, Venezuelan and Mexican)—after he batted .300 and posted a .359 on-base percentage with Licey of the Dominican Winter League. "

"Widely recognized as one of the fastest runners in professional baseball, Bonifacio is viewed as having all of the tools necessary to hit leadoff in the big leagues. Last season, playing for Double-A Mobile, Bonifacio led the Southern League in stolen bases (41) and hits (157), while ranking second in runs scored (84). For his career, Bonifacio owns a stout stolen base percentage of 78.1 percent (280 of 357).

Bonifacio batted .302 (111-for-367) with 18 doubles, five triples, one home run, 29 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 85 games with Tucson of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before being recalled by the Diamondbacks in early July. He was a Pacific Coast League All-Star selction, marking his fourth consecutive All-Star season."

My first reaction: positive.  With Felipe Lopez uninterested, tanking, and a candidate for release, the Nats needed a 2b prospect who can play.  Bonifacio has the added bonus of being able to hit leadoff, allowing the team to slot back into a normal order when everyone is healthy - Bonifacio, Milledge, Zimmerman, Johnson(?), Guzman, Kearns, Dukes, Flores, etc.

More to come as we research the new player, but it looks like Nationals Pride readers were right - Rauch would be first on the block, and he brought a 2b prospect just like I asked for in my trade piece long ago. 

 

 Permalink | Posted in Team, Transactions |  Comments (3)       

Today in D.C. Baseball History

Posted by Mark Hornbaker on Jul. 21, 2008 at 7:19 PM

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments       

Spending the weekend at Camden Yards

Posted by Jon Desenberg on Jul. 20, 2008 at 8:43 PM

Every few years my hometown Detroit Tigers come to Camden Yards on a weekend.  My wife and I have made it a tradition to spend those Saturdays and Sundays in Charm City.  So this year I sat in Orioles Park and reflected on it and its new neighbor on the Anacostia.

I like Nats Park and have been there for about 20 games, but Camden is already a classic.  I really hate Peter Angelos but can't hate the prototype for every new ballpark that came after it.  Make a point to take in a Saturday night game, stay in the Inner Harbor and then onto the Sunday 1:35pm matinee.  For the price there is no matching the Holiday Inn Inner Harbor.  The general manager saw we were fellow DC area neighbors, and gave us a complimentary 20 dollar breakfast, there's and indoor pool, nice restaurant and the hallways and rooms have recently been re-done.  There is a parking garage and of course best of all, it's a block from the Stadium. 

The Holiday Inn used to have great views of the park, but the city decided it needed a new convention center hotel and built this monstrosity that blocks the view of the park.  In fact  this new, bland and rather hideous structure also blocks much of the good views fans had when looking out beyond left field.

Pre-game on Saturday evenings head down to Faidley's Seafood at the Lexington Market, where you can get fresh clams, oysters, crabs, snow crab claws, lobster, and more at a real and vibrant city market.  Standing at the counter or the bar, you lean in and drink Natty Boh Beer and chat with some real Baltimore natives, people you'd never see at the game.   Its a ten minute walk down the street from the market to Camden, and get there a little early and go up to the Camden Club on the eighth floor of the famous warehouse.  Where once you needed to buy top tickets for the game to get in to the club, you now can just buy a five dollar day pass.  Its a great bar, full food menu and tons of tables looking out on the field from high above right field.  Make a reservation if you want dinner.

Overall, Camden just doesn't try as hard as Nats Park, and with the authentic warehouse and old buildings just beyond centerfield it doesn't have to.  With small crowds at most games, including just 23,000 for a beautiful Sunday matinee, take advantage and spend a weekend at Camden Yards, just try not to think about Angelos.

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments       

According to Plan?

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jul. 20, 2008 at 8:15 AM

From the day that the Lerner group assumed ownership of the Nationals in summer 2006, we've been assured that there will be a laser-like focus on adding quality talent to a minor-league system that was eviscerated under MLB ownership.

This mission, rightly considered essential to building the core of a long-term major-league contender, is commonly referred to -- not, to be sure, within the Nats' front office -- as The Plan.

Well, whatever you call it, how's it working?

The Nats' minor-league system has improved. And it's improved not just in relative terms -- which it would have been well-nigh impossible not to do -- but in terms of fielding winning teams. Not counting the Triple-A holding tank in Columbus (.541), the Nats' minor leagues in 2008 have aggregated a .551 collective winning percentage as of Saturday morning [update: Saturday night's games improved the group record to .555].

So, it would appear that the mission is proceeding swimmingly. Any year now, the Nats' management and fans are going to wake up and see a pennant-challenging team march right out onto the field at Nationals Park. Right?

Uh... let's not get all excited just yet.

---

Two things. First, hitting. For no particular reason, other perhaps than that his name falls close to the top of the alphabet, I'm going to single out Harrisburg outfielder Edgardo Baez, who's currently sporting a .276 / .361 / .481 season batting line.

That's pretty good. But it includes 39 bases on balls and 70 strikeouts in 349 plate appearances. (And that includes his time at high-A Potomac. Since his promotion, his line is just .226 /.339 / .321.)

Now, strikeouts by themselves are a limited indicator of hitting ability. Many strikeouts and relatively few walks, however, don't bode well for the development of a young hitter's ability to contribute to run production, which is what we'll be looking for when these guys start getting promoted to the major league club.

You know what? Forget all about the strikeouts for a minute. Pretend they were all infield grounders.

Think instead about this: If Baez is walking in barely ten percent of his plate appearances at high-A and double-A, what are major league pitchers going to do to him? Especially in the Nats' current culture of plate indiscipline? (For a possible answer, see: Bernadina, Roger.)

I've reserved judgment on the subject at times in the past. After all, the Nats do have some players who draw their share of walks: Ronnie Belliard (23 BB / 196 PA), Willie Harris (24 / 180), Austin Kearns (24 / 224), Dmitri Young (28 / 179) [update 2:  Young just hit the DL]. Also Elijah Dukes and Nick Johnson when they're healthy.

What do all those players have in common? They received their early professional training outside of the Nats' system.

I don't think I can speak strongly enough about this state of affairs. Until the Nats commit, audibly and visibly, to a philosophy of patience at the plate -- certainly at all levels and especially at the MLB level -- I'd be scared to promote any hitter in this organization.

---

Now, on to pitching. We'll let Chico Harlan do the in-depth reporting here.

Executive summary: While the Nats are pretty excited about the organization's young arms, other teams' scouts express somewhat less optimistic views...

• On Collin Balester: "[Not] above a number three starter."
• On Ross Detwiler: "Broken." (I might not put it quite that strongly myself. But from what I saw at the Pfitz on Saturday night, he's still a work in progress, and the progress seems frustratingly slow.)
• In sum: "There isn't anybody [among the Nats' minor league pitchers] who knocks your socks off."

If I were Harlan, I wouldn't be sitting by the phone waiting for an invitation to the Nats' Draft Day party next year. Or any year.

But he's just the messenger, and his message bears consideration.

---

Speaking of messengers and messages, you probably haven't enjoyed this one much. And here comes the kicker:

Do all these shortcomings mean that the Nats' execution of their player development strategy has been an abject failure?

Not at all. What they do is expose the fact that work remains to be done. Not just wizard drafts (and, by the way, you gotta get those draftees signed), nor window dressing, but continued serious strategic overhaul.

I've said it before. I'll say it again and again. The hitting culture must change. Must. Enough so that players promoted from the minors know that there is a consistent set of expectations at the MLB level, and that they will be guided and rewarded accordingly.

And barring a breakout by Balester, Detwiler, or Jordan Zimmermann, the Nats may have to spend or trade for the front of a winning major-league rotation. No, that is not the way you'd like to do it -- it's preferable to grow your pitchers and, if you have to, buy your hitters -- but that's how it looks to be working.

Even with all that, success still isn't going to happen overnight. Which is OK. Despite occasional blogospheric hysteria, the fans know that building a long-term contender will take time.

But -- especially considering that there is a team just 40 miles up the road that is also seriously looking to improve for the first time in a generation -- the Nats have little time for relaxation.

And, if they want to keep their customers, little room for unfounded optimism.

 Permalink | Posted in Minors, Pitching, Team |  Comments       

NationalsPride Contest Update

Posted by Mark Hornbaker on Jul. 18, 2008 at 7:58 AM

Predict the Washington Nationals Record for the 2008 Season

Going into the second half of the season and most of our predictions are way off. The Washington Nationals are (36-60) with a .375 winning percentage. The average results given by the 15 participants of the contest was that the Washington Nationals 2008 record would be (78-84) with a .481 winning percentage.

The Nationals Bar Guide Jon Desenberg has stayed on top of the leader-board since week two of the 2008 Nationals season. As the group's predictions on the Nationals record may be off the other predictions might not be out of reach. The group picked the New York Mets to win the National League East. We still have a slim chance on our choice of World Series winner the Detroit Tigers.

Remember a great way to track our Nationals is by using the NationalsPride.com - Nationals Progress Index.

Current Standings:

Team Record

Washington Nationals / (36-60) .375

Rank- Name - Prediction - Blog Name

1, Jon Desenberg / 71-91 .438 / Nationals Bar Guide

2, Cecil Hornbaker / 73-89 .451

3, Kerry Rawlerson / 75-87 .463

4, Mike Epperson / 75-87 .463

5, Pete Hotchkiss / 76-86 .469

Here are all of the predictions from the 15 participants of the contest.

Name - Blog name - Nats record - NL East Winner - WS Winner

Allison Iciek - None - 90-72 - Florida - Boston

Cecil Hornbaker - None - 73-89 - NY Mets - NY Mets

David "Roy" Carroll - None - 77-85 - NY Mets - Detroit

Ian Koski - The Business of Baseball - 77-85 - NY Mets - Seattle

Jack Wang - None - 78-84 - NY Mets - Boston Red Sox

Jon Desenberg - Nationals Bar Guide - 71-91 - NY Mets - Detroit

Linda Hornbaker - None - 78-84 - NY Mets - Arizona

Mark Hornbaker - History's Perspective - 81-81 - Atlanta - Detroit

Mike Epperson - None - 75-87 - Atlanta - Colorado

Mike Henderson - Hendo's Hutch - 78-84 - NY Mets - Detroit

Mike Kanick - Bleacher Banter - 78-84 - NY Mets - NY Yankees

Pete Hotchkiss - None - 76-86 - NY Mets - Detroit

Scott Ableman - Let Teddy Win - 79-83 - Atlanta - Chi. Cubs

Todd Michalak - None - 81-81 - NY Mets - Detroit

Wayne Wells - None - 83-79 - Philadelphia - Boston

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments (1)       

Lerners won't pay? Make the fans pay!

Posted by Ian Koski on Jul. 18, 2008 at 12:29 AM

It's almost hard to believe that in a fight between the Lerners and the District, it would be innocent fans who'll actually pay the price. And yet, in this bizarre town, somehow they've found a way.

So says Friday's Post, reporting news broken in Thursday's Examiner. The District's plan is to raise the special sales tax it has applied to everything fans buy at the ballpark. It currently charges 10 percent, but would up the rate to 15% if adopted.

The move is in retribution for the Nationals' refusal to pay the $3.5 million in rent it owes to the District, and for their demand that the District pay $100,000 a day in penalties for a ballpark that is apparently complete enough to play in, but not complete enough to satisfy the Lerners.

Obviously it's all the fans' fault. That's why the District has decided to pass the extra cost on to us. If we're willing to pay $4.50 for a Coke, why not $4.75, right?

The story continues to get more and more absurd with each passing day. All this bickering, all this pouting, all this undue overconfidence. And all of it for the worst team in baseball. I continue to lose more and more respect for the Ted Lerner, Mark Lerner and team President Stan Kasten. They've managed to throw away a hopeful, optimistic climate for baseball here by choosing pettiness over partnership.

Which is not to say that the District is completely free of blame here. But let's be realistic - the amateur politicians on the Council are no match for the professional profiteers who own the Nationals.

The appropriate end result is shame. Embarrassment. Humiliation. And it's all deserved.

As fans, we've become ashamed of our stingy, greedy ownership. We're embarrassed by the laughingly fragile health and bad performance of our players. We were embarrassed by the alleged FBI investigation into our general manager. And we're embarrassed by the District's inability to finally complete the stadium four months after its doors opened.

One of the few things Nats fans have to be proud of these days is that so many of them still go out and cheer for their team. It's impressive that average attendance has remained as high as it has been considering how bad the club is and how much money it costs just to go to a game.

Only in Washington does that mean the next logical step is to punish the fans. Smart thinkin'.

 Permalink | Posted in Ownership, Stadium |  Comments (4)       

If We Have to Do It, Let's Do It Right

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jul. 17, 2008 at 8:30 PM

As I think I've said before, Nationals Pride is privileged to have some of the most intelligent and discerning readers in the baseball blogosphere.

Therefore, when they tell us that reliever Jon Rauch should be the first National to be considered for a deadline trade, we must acknowledge their collective wisdom. (Even if we don't all agree with it. I'd prefer to see first what teams would offer for infielder Ronnie Belliard, but I am in a severe minority.)

If Rauch is in the deal mix, who's apt to be most interested?

I'd think the Dodgers would be looking, having just shut down closer Takashi Saito for six weeks -- which, given the nature of his injury (a sprained elbow ligament) could easily extend to the end of the season, or even beyond. [Update: looks like TJ surgery is a very real possibility.]

At this writing, the Dodgers are a game behind in the suddenly weak NL West. If they want to challenge for the division lead, Rauch -- a guy who's considerably more than just a one-inning closer -- is someone they should be having a hard look at. He and Jonathan Broxton could be a formidable setup-closer duo.

Whom should the Nats be angling for in a trade? Double-A denizen Scott Elbert merits a look.

Recently converted from the Jacksonville rotation to a late-inning relief role, the 22-year-old Elbert is -- despite the occasional rough outing -- sporting a 2.74 ERA in 11 games, with 20 strikeouts in 23 innings against 11 walks.

Of course, the Dodgers might elect to promote Elbert themselves. Given GM Ned Colletti's apparent preference for veterans over youth, though, I have a hunch they won't be eager to do that.

So while I'd hate to see Rauch go, I have to think a Rauch-Elbert deal -- with maybe other players thrown in here or there -- could be good for everyone involved.

 Permalink | Posted in Pitching, Team |  Comments (6)       

All eight of NationalsPride's blogs in one place.

Columnists

• Bleacher Banter
• Business of Baseball
• Stat Boy
• View From the Dirt
• A Team of My Own
• Hendo's Hutch
• Nationals Bar Guide
• History's Perspective
• Painting the Corners

Links

• Nationals Blogs
• We've Got Heart
• Nationals Farm Authority
• Just A Nats Fan
• Nats 320
• Federal Baseball
• District of Baseball
• Oleanders & Morning Glories
• NatFanatics
• Nationals Enquirer
• Nationals MLB News Blog
• Nationals Nation
• Nationals Post
• Nationals Report
• Nats Triple Play
• River Dogz
• William World News
• Baseball Blogs
• A Citizen's Blog (Phils)
• Baseball Musings
• Bleed Cubbie Blue (Cubs)
• Sports Blogs
• D.C. Pro Sports Report
• Hugging Harold Reynolds

RSS - Entries