If I were GM - My Targets

Posted by Michael Kanick on Nov. 20, 2008 at 10:38 AM

So I'm back, and still bitter (a little), but the hot stove is getting warm while the temperature here in DC drops, so like a moth to the flame, I'll drop in for a post.  Below are my top five Nats free agent targets, along with my reasoning.  As a note, I'm ignoring lofty expectations, and letting most type A Free Agents go to other teams.

1. Orlando Hudon, 2B - The O-Dawg is a semi-hidden gem in this years free agent class, and a late season wrist injury knocked his value back a bit.  He is, however, a good, scrappy player with great defense and can lead off as well. Hit .305 last season, and showed a consistent 10 point improvement in batting average each year since joining the NL. Would cost the Nats in more than money as a type A free agent, but would be worth it. The Nats in-house options are little more than band-aids that they would have to hope make it through the season unscathed and hitting more than .250.

2. Jon Garland, SP - Sure, he's a control artist, and yes, he's prone to the long ball, but look at the Nats staff - do they have 5 pitchers you'd rather have?  The Nats won't get Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, or Sheets, and Garland won 14 games last year for a division winner.  His ERA will likely go down with a move to the NL, and he's thrown at least 190 innings a season since 2002, so he could teach the young guys something about durability.

3. Casey Blake, INF - Outside of Teixeira (not likely) and Dunn (ugh, strikeout machine, no defense), there aren't many good 1B options.  Blake could play there, sub at 3B if needed, and would provide a conistent, middle of the road offensive performance with better defense than the Nats had last year.  A 4 year contract would hold him in place until Chris Marrero arrives.  As a bonus, he's played over 100 games a year since breaking in full time in 2003, so he's unlikely to be hurt (see Johnson, Nick and Young, Dmitri).

4. Kyle Farnsworth, RP - It's obvious that last year showed the Nats that their percieved strength, the bullpen, was just as weak as the rest of the team. Rebuilding that crucial part starts now, and with Fuentes and K-Rod likely to go elsewhere and Chad Cordero gone, Farnsworth could likely close.  He's a meathead, but he throws hard, and did very well with Atlanta in 2005 (before his Yankee debacle).  He's not ideal, but how many Nat bullpen arms would you like more than his?

5. Jorge Julio, RP - Relief arms should be a National priority (pun intended), since (even though I can't find the stat to link to), the Nats were among the worst in MLB for blown holds and saves (i.e. leads lost after the 6th inning). Julio, like Farnsworth, is not an ideal pick, but his NL stints since leaving Baltimore have all been ERA's under 4 (excerpting a terrible 9 total innings with the Marlins in 2007).  Had an 0.73 ERA last year in 12 games with Atlanta, and knows the region after playing 5 seasons in Baltimore early in his career.

Again - I know these aren't the names on everyones mind, but I think these are some of the better fits for the Nats and the direction they are going.  Anemic offense aside, the Rays showed that pitching and defense can turn a team around, so that is what I prioritized.  Garland would be a 1-2 starter with newly acquired Scott Olsen, and Blake and Hudson would shore up the defense.  Farnsworth and Julio could give the Nats a good shot at closing out some of those games they lead after 6.

I'm sure most of you disagree with my picks, so comment away.  I'd love to hear some of your ideas as well.

 Permalink | Posted in Bowden, Nationals, Team, Transactions, Truth and Rumors |  Comments (1)       

Signing Teixeira would be Historic

Posted by Mark Hornbaker on Nov. 20, 2008 at 8:11 AM

I have to tell you that I am getting very intrigued by the talk of possibly signing first baseman Mark Teixeira. I know the odds are against the Nats signing Teixeira but I think it is important that the Nationals’ front office show us, the fans that they are serious about making this team competitive.

If the Nationals are able to pull off this long shot and sign Teixeira it would be the biggest baseball signing in Washington D.C. since December 5, 1964 when the Washington Senators traded for Frank Howard.

If the Nationals do not sign Teixeira I would like to see them go after Adam Dunn if he is still available. What do you think? Do you think the Nationals have reasonable chance in signing Teixeira? Would you buy more tickets if the Nats sign Teixeira?

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments (2)       

Strange Bedfellows

Posted by Mike Henderson on Nov. 15, 2008 at 1:00 PM

Those of us who have issues with the current management of the Nationals are wont to cite a statement made by Padres general manager Kevin Towers a few years back. Let's put it in context:

. . . During a radio interview, [Harrisburg radio announcer Terry] Byrom jokingly asked Towers if there were any fellow major league GMs he did not like to deal with in trade talks.

"Only one," Towers replied. "And I'll name him. Jim Bowden. The guy's an idiot. I won't take his calls, and I don't think many others do."

Byrom was stunned at Towers' candor that day, but now that he's had the opportunity to meet Bowden in person, or perhaps the better description is get blown off in person, he shares Towers's sentiments. . . .

So can we trust our ears when we're told that the Nats are in the bidding for Friars 1B Adrian Gonzalez?

This Hutch, no stranger to incredulity, would say yes. San Diego is in rebuilding mode, and Gonzalez is a player from whom they would dearly love to realize some trade value in the form of prospects, no matter whose, before his contract expires at the end of 2010. The Nats, meanwhile, have shown that they're willing to deal from the respectable deck of pitching hopefuls they've picked up over the past few years.

Should they do it in this case? As we said back in May, no.

Gonzalez' contract, with $7.75 million remaining on it over the next two seasons, is a steal and Towers knows it. The line may show 142 strikeouts in 697 plate appearances, but there are also those 36 HRs and 74 walks to take into account. So Gonzalez' remaining services will command full value at the prospect bazaar, especially with farmhand Kyle Blanks looking ready to assume the first-sack mantle any day now.

And if you think Blanks himself would be a good pickup: perhaps, but consider that (a) Blanks is no stranger to the swinging K himself, and (b) he'll command the league minimum salary next season. The latter will surely be a relief to Padres owner John Moores, who desperately needs to hold down payroll until his divorce is final.

So Blanks isn't going anywhere except Petco. And while it's a nice thought -- well-nigh an ecstatic thought to some -- Gonzalez isn't coming to Nats Park.

 Permalink | Posted in Hot Stove, Management |  Comments (2)       

End of the World (Not)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Nov. 13, 2008 at 8:30 PM

The Nationals' front office, faced with sore arms here, injured fielders there, and angst everywhere, had to scramble mightily during the 2008 season just to put together a 59-win team.

At the end of the season, it was hard not to see that there wasn't much of a rotation beyond John Lannan, as well as that there was a void at first base that wasn't (and I don't think could fully have been) foreseen.

So going into the offseason, the FO immediately let it be known that, at the very least, a starting arm and a first-base bat would be needed to start to fill in the gaps in the roster.

Sure, they could've implemented a purely home-grown strategy by promoting, say, Ross Detwiler and Bill Rhinehart. But no matter how those players project, are they the guys you want to build a team around now?

The Nats seem to think not, and I agree.  As I've been saying for a while, now is the time at the major-league level to build a core of relatively young veterans that can be complemented by prospects as they are ready to be promoted.

And that's what the FO appears to be doing by picking up Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham. A healthy Olsen should fit right into the rotation, while Willingham adds outfield depth that allows the Nats to make future moves from a position of relative strength.

---

Not everyone in the bleachers is thrilled about this deal, on either side.  A particularly interesting, if somewhat Delphic, analysis is offered by the estimable Christina Kahrl ($) at Baseball Prospectus.

I'll grant that the trade's not a cure-all -- although, to be fair, it couldn't have been intended to be.  To start with, Willingham likely won't draw much 1B duty; for this reason and others, the Nats remain in the market for Mark Teixeira, as well as for Adam Dunn.

In any event, dealing for a couple of arbitration-eligible guys -- one of them pushing 30 -- jettisoned by a tight-fisted and (lately) perpetually rebuilding non-contender will not transform the Nats into the Rays or the Phillies.  But Olsen and Willingham will improve the Nats' major-league roster.

What about the prospects the Nats gave up?  Yes, they have value: you don't get something for nothing.  Nonetheless, in letting go of Emilio Bonifacio, P. J. Dean and Jake Smolinski, have the Nats stripped the cupboard bare?

Of course not. What they have done is to make a move toward building the veteran core from which a contender can grow as the minor-league up-and-comers -- of whom there are more, and more hopeful ones, than at this time three or four years ago -- mature.

That said, it is essential to continue the good work by dealing current veterans appropriately for more prospects. Start with Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena. If either Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young gets healthy, they should be in the trade picture too.

The success or failure of that part of the Plan (forgive me, Mr. Kasten) strikes me as a better long-term indicator of the future than the addition or subtraction of one major-leaguer or another. Fans of veteran acquisitions rather than of system-building as a strategic cornerstone should turn their rooting interests in the direction of the Dodgers, as they could have to the Orioles before Andy MacPhail came along.

---

As we ponder the near-term implications of this trade, many would damn Olsen for his past anger and irresponsibility. That kind of reaction is understandable, but still -- especially given Olsen's youth -- seems reflexive and thoughtless to me.

If you're looking for something to criticize, dig into his numbers, as Steven -- no Olsen fan -- has done. Then try to integrate the quantitative analysis into a dispassionate assessment of how you think Olsen will fit onto this evolving team. (Which the Olsen-damners, in my opinion, have not done convincingly, and which would be difficult anyhow without a crystal ball.)

Speculation is fun and sometimes cathartic.  (Who doesn't like Around the Horn?  Well, OK...) But between episodes of number-crunching, wishcasting, knee-jerking, and fulminating, it'd be a good idea to take a deep breath and remember that the 2009 season is a long way off, and that the offseason is far from over.

And that what we think we know about any particular player -- especially one like Olsen, who has, Lord willing, a lot of future in front of him -- will never quite be the whole story.

 Permalink | Posted in Hot Stove, Management, Team |  Comments       

Hot Stove Heating Up in November

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Nov. 13, 2008 at 8:12 AM

While we try and understand what the Willingham and Olsen trade mean for a team short on consistency and long on outfielders, a new wrinkle has emerged that has fans scracthing their head.  In an email to MLB, Jim Bowden wisely reiterated that the Nationals were not in the market for Manny Ramirez, and then promptly stated they were in the market for ANOTHER outfielder.

I know what you are thinking, Adam Dunn, right? The OF long rumored to be the target of Bowden's offseason.  While he might be part of the new plan, that is not the player, being targeted.  Instead, its newly minted Rockies OF, Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez, 23 years old with a half year of MLB service, was one of the top prospects in baseball when with the Diamondbacks, and was one of the key components in Oakland's Dan Haren trade last year, and was just part of the Matt Holliday deal announced this week.

So the big question is obviously, why, right? No.  The bigger question is who, as in who the Nationals will have to deal to acquire such a gem of the minor leagues.  Gonzalez grades MUCH higher than Milledge across the board offensively and defensively,and an OF with Gonzalez, Milledge and Dukes would be impressive.  So, the question is who will be dealt? Detweiler? Marrerro? Jordan Zimmerman? Milledge? Willingham? A combination of all of these players?

I doubt this ever happens as a guy like Gonzalez comes with a heavy pricetag in terms of prospects, and right now, the Nationals do not have the pieces to part with.  If it does happen, watch out, this guy can play. 

 Permalink | Posted in Transactions, Rumors, Recommendations |  Comments       

Update on Nats/Marlins Trade

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Nov. 12, 2008 at 12:24 PM

ESPN's Keith Law has his analysis on the acquisition of Willingham and Olsen that makes it sound like a slam dunk for the Nationals.

I am skeptical of any slam dunk deal, considering that is what the Kearns/Lopez deal looked like and in the end, Brandon Harris has been the best player in that whole deal as a starting second basemen for the Twins!

Hey all, for my full breakdown from yesterday (in case you missed it click here)

 Permalink | Posted |  Comments       

Revenge on Loria?

Posted by Mike Henderson on Nov. 11, 2008 at 10:50 AM

The first this Hutch heard about the trade that the Nationals are said to be engineering with the Marlins was a rumor that said the Nats might get lefty starter Scott Olsen and slugging outfielder Josh Willingham if they would give up Emilio Bonifacio -- OK so far, thought I -- but then also two minor-leaguers not specified at the time. Damn, I thought, there go Zinicola and Zimmermann.

As it turns out, the letter Z is safe on the roster.  Two much younger farmhands are reportedly to be dealt: right-handed pitcher Philip "P. J." Dean and infielder Jake Smolinski.

OK, so Willingham might not become the homer champ, and Olsen might need boffo run support to win 20. But those guys are good, and they project very well over the next few years.

And for all the Nats are booked to get, this might yet not be a lopsided trade, even as some  root for the carpetbagging ex-Expos' and current Marlins' owner Jeffrey Loria to get his.  Boni, while a legitimate major-league infielder, is a known and (incrementally) positive quantity.  As for the outbound prospects, Dean projects quite well but is just 19 while Smolinski, also 19, has struggled a bit. They're guys worth taking a chance on, as the Marlins apparently are willing to do.

No question about it, though: Olsen is the kind of rotation arm the Nats need badly, while Willingham should reinforce the outfield and deliver a bit of bat pop without breaking the bank just yet.

Here's hoping that this deal goes through (update:  the deal is done) and that the dealing doesn't stop there.

 Permalink | Posted in Minors, Pitching, Team |  Comments (2)       

Florida and Washington Two Step: Trade of Bonifacio

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Nov. 11, 2008 at 9:00 AM

There is a little bit of Spring in November; well, not if you are outside, but if you are inside reading your Nats news, the news of the Marlins and Nationals trade has some of us thinking about spring training.  On Monday night, the Nationals traded newly acquired second basemen Emilio Bonifacio and minor leaguers P.J. Dean and Jake Smolinski to the Florida Marlins for left fielder Josh Willingham and starting pitcher Scott Olsen.  Confused? Yeah me to, here are my concerns about the trade that APPEARS to be very one sided to the Nationals favor .

1. Why would any team, especially one in their own division, trade a starting pitcher who has topped 30 starts and 175 innings in their first three seasons and is only 24 years old?
2. Why would a team jettison two power hitters in a span of two weeks as the Marlins did in Mike Jacobs (32 HR in 2008) and Josh Willingham (21 in 2007) unless they had stud in the minors (they might, not sure) or they were flawed?
3. Why would a team who hailed Bonifacio as their next great leadoff hitter turn around and jettison a couple of months later?

Okay, here are my answers to all those questions:

1. The Marlins are shedding anyone who is marginal and arbitration eligible, as they do not want to pay more money for middle level players.  
2. With the addition of Bonifacio, they can move Hanley down to the #3 spot and out of the leadoff spot and move Cameron Maybin to the #2, giving the Marlins the fastest 3 players to start a lineup than any team in baseball to start the game
3. The Nationals made some deadline deals last year and added 3 middle infielders in Bonifacio, Anderson Hernandez, and Gonzalez from the Yankees, with the latter acquitting themselves better than Bonifacio in tryout duty.  This made Bonifacio, even with his speed and upside, expendable to the Nationals.  Plus, he cant hit a curveball, think Pedro Cerrano with speed and no power.
4. Scott Olsen is maddingly inconsistent which is one of the worst things that can plague a young team and a young pitcher.  The 30 starts and 175 innings that he logged were innings of the Matt Chico variety--meaning, "lets see what we have in this guy as we struggle".  So, for the Marlins, losing this type of pitcher helps, and not hurts any serious run they feel they can make.
5. The Nationals are adding players who can add stability to their team, and end some experiments that marred the past three years.  This means you Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson.  With Willingham pulling duty in the past as a LF and 1B, he can step in and play both on a regular basis.  This gives the Nats an OF of Willingham, Milledge, Dukes on most days, or Harris, Milledge, Willingham (if Dukes is off the reservation) or Harris, Milledge, Dukes in the OF with Willingham at 1B if necessary.
6. And the biggest reason for this trade for the Marlins and Nationals is: moving parts to clear payroll and make a splash in free agency.  The Nationals will clear Kearns off the payroll this year, and the Marlins just cleared players who would have cost them some money in arbitration.

To me, this move signals the Nationals know they will not land any of the big free agents, but will still make a push for a Lowe, Burnett or Sheets, the same players the Marlins covet. This trade only make sense to me in a first move of many for both teams.  This could be the start of some interesting moves for these clubs, but if they fail to capitalize, both of these trades will be footnotes for two struggling clubs. 

 Permalink | Posted in Transactions, Rumors, Recommendations |  Comments       

Farewell

Posted by Mike Henderson on Nov. 5, 2008 at 10:30 PM

There was no telling how much of a catcher he was, and now there never will be. Lord knows he had the build for it, and probably the arm and maybe even the lumber in his prime, but whatever he had wasn't enough to attract the attention of scouts to Jewett High School in Ohio.

Then again, perhaps that was just life's unfairness rearing its ugly head again. He knew all about that, but didn't curse it or defy it, despite the blows it rained down on him as it does on us all.

He raised two sons creditably, denying them little of what they wanted (having taught them to keep their wants reasonable, for the most part) and nothing of what they needed.

He made hundreds of friends along the way, many of those during his 30-year career as a route delivery salesman for Nickles Bakery, and many more as a respected member of the communities he lived in.

A gentle, decent, steadfast man, my father, Ralph Cole Henderson, passed away Wednesday afternoon at the age of 88 in Caldwell, Ohio. Eternal rest grant unto him, O Lord.

---

This Hutch will be on hiatus until late November.

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments (11)       

Go for the Big Gun

Posted by Mark Hornbaker on Nov. 5, 2008 at 9:09 AM

The word is that the Nationals are looking for a slugger. If this is the case I say go with free agent Adam “The Big Gun” Dunn. I wouldn’t mind at all if the Nats signed Teixeira but I think they have a better chance signing Dunn.

When most people think of Adam Dunn they think about long home runs and a lot of strikeouts. And most people are correct. What most people may not know is that Dunn is the only player in the Major’s to hit 40 or more home runs the last five seasons. Another stat that may surprise some people is the Adam Dunn who has a career batting average of .247 has a very respectable career on base average of .381. Another plus is that he has played in 152 games or more in each of the past five seasons.

What I also like about Dunn is that he is what he is, that is a major league slugger. At 6’6 and 275 lbs. his mere presence at the plate will make some Washingtonians have flashbacks to the late 1960’s and early 1970’s when Frank “Hondo” Howard played in Washington D.C.

Below is how the 28 soon to be 29 year old Adam Dunn compares to the 28 year old Mark Teixeira based off of career stats that are averaged into a 155 game season.

At Bats
Dunn – 531
Teixeira – 585

Runs
Dunn – 96
Teixeira – 97

Hits
Dunn – 131
Teixeira – 170

Doubles
Dunn – 28
Teixeira – 38

Triples
Dunn – 1
Teixeira – 2

Home Runs
Dunn – 38
Teixeira – 35

RBI’s
Dunn – 92
Teixeira – 116

Walks
Dunn – 109
Teixeira – 76

Strikeouts
Dunn – 172
Teixeira – 119

Stolen Bases
Dunn – 8
Teixeira – 2

Total Bases
Dunn – 275
Teixeira – 317

OBP
Dunn - .381
Teixeira - .378

Slugging
Dunn - .518
Teixeira - .541

Batting Average
Dunn - .247
Teixeira - .290

 Permalink | Posted in Uncategorized |  Comments (3)       

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