Eight Mondays to go: Projecting the Nationals' starting pitchers

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 8, 2010 at 6:15 AM
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At the SABR meeting in Rosslyn the other weekend, this columnist unveiled a National League East forecast that showed the Nats logging 75 wins.

Some number of those wins will be recorded by the Opening Day starting rotation in that forecast, which contained these names:

• Jason Marquis
• John Lannan
• Garrett Mock
• Craig Stammen
• Scott Olsen

A knowledgeable-looking member of the audience raised his hand and intoned confidently: "There is no way that list is going to win 75 games."

Legitimate objections to the 75-win assertion abound.

For one thing, where's Stephen Strasburg on that list?  (Prediction:  He's on the way, just not at the beginning of April.)  And Miguel Batista?  (Prediction:  He could easily displace Stammen, or Olsen if the latter's not all the way back to full strength.)  And just-signed Shawn Estes?  (Prediction:  He'll be retiring to Arizona; despite having inked a minor-league contract, he doesn't really want to pitch in triple-A and he's not pitching in the majors.)

How did last season's Opening Day rotation end up performing in terms of wins -- and, while we're at it, durability?

That's an easy answer to provide, if not necessarily a pleasant one.  The table below lists the wins and innings logged by each of the first five pitchers that started for the Nats in 2009.  (Here's a link if you're interested in seeing the numbers for the whole league.)

In general, you can depend on your five top starters leaving Spring Training to give your team about half its innings and half its wins.  (So the roster shown at top would be on the hook for only 37 or 38 wins, not 75.)  The rest will come from triple-A callups and from the bullpen.

But in 2009, the Nats were one of only four teams in the National League (Los Angeles, Philadelphia and San Diego were the other three) that had to call on pitchers other than their five Opening Day starters to log them 40 or more wins.  (Relievers Tyler Clippard and Ron Villone and triple-A promotees Stammen and JD Martin -- who's also a candidate for the Opening Day rotation -- accounted for 18 of those 40 added wins for the Nats.)  And Washington was also the only team other than San Diego that got fewer than 500 total innings during the season from its Opening Day five.

What killed the Opening Day rotation (excluding Lannan, who presumably nailed a horseshoe over his door)?  The bad news can be recapped in few words: Martis' control slipped, Cabrera never had any, and Olsen's shoulder and Zimmermann's elbow got torn up.

And what made things worse was that, bad as the Opening Day 2009 rotation was, the bullpen was even worse.  The numbers hardly matter; what's important is that none of the relievers with whom the Nats left Viera in April is still with the team.  (Defense mattered as well; we never get tired of talking about it.)

We'll have a look at the projected 2010 relief corps in the next installment of this feature.  As for the starters we'll be seeing in a couple of months, the list at the top of this column -- give or take a Batista or a Martin -- looks a bit more like the core of a 75-win team than the names we were looking at a year ago, wouldn't you agree?  (Or if you don't agree, which is perfectly reasonable, what names would you choose?)

     

Next stop: 1912

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 5, 2010 at 10:05 PM
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A few days ago we noted that the National Hockey League's Washington Capitals had set a franchise record with their eleventh consecutive victory.  And on Friday night they went a step further, winning their 13th game in a row to match the baseball victory streak that the American League champion-to-be Washington Senators unreeled in August 1933.

What's left for the Caps to prove?  If they can string together four more victories, they'll match the longest winning streak of any Washington major-league sporting franchise:  the 17 straight wins that the Senators put up between Thursday, May 30, and Tuesday, June 18, 1912.

Would such a streak, as it later would in 1933, avail the Nats an AL pennant?  Alas, no:  Washington's 91 victories in 1912 left them a distant second, 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox who won an astounding 105 of the 154 games they played that season on their way to a World Series victory over the New York Giants.

Where, by the way, did the American League's New York franchise finish in 1912?  Dead last with 102 losses -- another mark with which Washington sports fans are, more recently, sadly familiar.

     

Hudson not on way, Kennedy next (updated)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 4, 2010 at 1:45 PM
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Veteran middle infielder Orlando Hudson, who had been long rumored to be on his way to the Washington Nationals, is apparently going elsewhere according to Bill Ladson at MLB.com who cites Minnesota as Hudson's most likely destination.

The present situation in Washington, which has been spending the offseason seeking a dependable veteran 2B/SS, would appear to present an opportunity for Adam Kennedy who had been reported as being interested in coming on board with Washington but also as waiting for the Nats and Hudson to reach (or fail to reach) agreement.

More as we learn it.

UPDATED 2/4/10 3:40 pm: Mark Zuckerman, late of the Times, hears that the Nats are giving Kennedy a look but are willing to stand pat with Ian Desmond at shortstop and Cristian Guzman at second base, as they've been saying since the end of last season…

UPDATED 2/4/10 6:30 pm: Curtis Kitchen of Sports Radio 810 WHB in Kansas City tweets that the Hudson-Twins deal is done and that he hears Hudson wanted at least twice the money from the Nats that he'll get from Minnesota…

UPDATED 2/4/10 7:40 pm: Not so fast on the reported Minnesota discount -- Buster Olney of ESPN hears that Hudson's getting a $5 million deal from the Twins…

UPDATED 2/5/10 6:20 am: That didn't take long -- Kennedy has been signed to play second, reports Ladson. All indicators now point to having Guzman remain at shortstop and Desmond start at triple-A Syracuse…

     

The last time this happened

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 3, 2010 at 10:25 AM
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If you're a fan of the Washington Capitals you're probably feeling pretty smug right now.  And even if you're not a puck fan, it's hard to miss what's been going on at Verizon Center.

The Caps, who have rocketed to NHL dominance with the aid of their young players and the even but firm guidance of coach Bruce Boudreau, have just won their 11th game in a row.  Having just set a franchise record for consecutive wins, the team now leads the entire NHL with 82 points and holds a commanding 25-point lead over the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning and Atlanta Thrashers in the NHL's Southeast Division.

The Caps, of course, would be thrilled to bring home a Stanley Cup in June.  In the meantime, is there another record within shouting distance at which the Caps can aim?

Here's one to try for:  In 1933, the Washington Senators won 13 games in a row from Tuesday, August 8, through Sunday, August 20.  The streak included ten wins against then-anemic Chicago, Boston and St. Louis, but also three against the mighty Yankees.

That streak, as Dan Steinberg of the Post's D.C. Sports Bog points out, was one of the highlights of a year that worked out pretty well for Joe Cronin's Nats, who went to the World Series that October (just as eleven-game winning streaks would punctuate Super Bowl seasons for the Redskins years later).

For what it's worth, 1933 was the fourth and last in a series of campaigns in which the that Senators franchise -- which departed Washington for Minnesota after the 1960 season -- would log at least 90 wins, no mean feat over a 154-game season.  Except for the war years of 1943 and 1945 in which the Nats won 84 and 87 games respectively, the team would only once (in 1936, when they went 82-71) again record as many as 80 victories in a Washington uniform.  (See the comments for notes on the expansion Senators.)

     

Nine Mondays to go: Projecting the 2010 NL East

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
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It's been a busy weekend.  Check out all the great stuff that NationalsPride.com managing editor Ian Koski caught and photographed at the Nationals' Winter Caravan this Friday and at Sunday's NatsFest.

Also, yours truly was privileged to have the opportunity to speak this past Saturday in Rosslyn at the annual meeting of the Bob Davids Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research.

That provided an opportunity to start unrolling a set of predictions for what the Nationals will accomplish in 2010.  Not only were there quite a few Nats fans in the SABR audience, but Baseball Prospectus had raised some eyebrows last week when they pegged the Nats to post a winning record of 82-80 in the coming season.

Some of those raised eyebrows were the result of BP computations that turned out to have gone awry; they've since revised their forecast to 81-81.  But whether the number in the W column is 81 or 82, does it make sense?

Not from the vantage point of this Hutch.  Here, as unveiled to the members and guests of SABR on Saturday, is a more sensible NL East projection.

Future installments of this feature will explain how the numbers in the above table are derived.  For now, here's a synopsis of why things rate to shake out that way.

• Phillies:  A fairly solid team that mostly successfully addressed a short list of offseason needs.  Rotation?  Check.  Third base?  Check.  Back of the bullpen?  We'll see.  (We'll also see what they do next offseason when their veteran pickups are a year older.)
• Braves:  They've still got an outfield situation to sort out.  And an aging third baseman. And Derek Lowe.  None of these things portends hope.
• Marlins:  While the members of the starting rotation are all old enough to get driver's licenses, not all can yet be trusted to keep the ball within the confines of the playground.
• Mets:  Presumably their hope is that a revivified Gary Matthews Jr. can tee off on NL pitching as he could not in Anaheim.  Despite having surrendered the services of Brian Stokes, they've still got Bobby Parnell and Nelson Figueroa to lean on and have further buttressed the relief corps with Clint Everts.  Good luck with that plan, Omar.
• Nats:  Largely free of distraction but also largely free of superior starting pitching.  Boppers and bullpen can respectively push the record closer to .500 and keep it there but the middle-infield defense will be the story of the year -- one whose ending the team is praying will be happier than it was in 2009.

What's your take?

UPDATED 01-Feb-2010 5:00 pm:  BP has tweaked their formula again and now says 76 wins…

     

Nats at work, days four and five (plus final chili notes)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 30, 2010 at 6:05 AM
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The Nationals' Winter Caravan is heading into its last two days.

Saturday will feature appearances in D.C. and Maryland.  The Nats will start with a visit to patients at Children's National Medical Center and will proceed to a press conference, skills demonstration and autograph session at the Prince George's Sports & Learning Complex at 8001 Sheriff Road in Landover, adjacent to FedEx Field.  (If you can't make it to Prince George's County on Saturday, you could try checking out this event in Rosslyn.)

And if you haven't got your tickets to Sunday's NatsFest at Nationals Park, there's still time (at this writing) to do so at the Nationals' website, where you can also find out who's scheduled to appear at each event.

There'll be over a dozen Nats personalities at both the Saturday and Sunday Caravan events, plus a talk on Sunday by George Will, author of Men at Work (and, at least as importantly, a Nats season-ticket holder).

Dedicated Nats fans in need of chili on Saturday may have mixed luck, as there seem to be few options in the FedEx neighborhood outside of one of the local Wendy's, or the A&W over on Central Avenue in Capitol Heights.  Sunday's NatsFest rates to afford easier chili access provided one or more of the Ben's stands at Nats Park is open.  (And with that, we now return you to our regular restaurant and entertainment reviewer.)

     

Hendo to speak at SABR Day meeting

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 29, 2010 at 4:40 PM
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This Saturday, January 30, is SABR Day in America, as declared by the Society for American Baseball Research, and you'll have an opportunity to celebrate with the Bob Davids Chapter of SABR as they hold their annual meeting at the Holiday Inn Rosslyn at Key Bridge in Arlington (Metro:  Rosslyn).

The featured speaker will be legendary Orioles pitcher Scott McGregor.  Later in the day, this columnist will be talking about what's in store for NationalsPride.com and for the Nationals in 2010.

Admission is $31 for the all-day program, which starts at 9:30 a.m. and includes a buffet lunch.  More details including registration information are available at the Bob Davids chapter website.

     

Meet the Nats, day three (with chili notes)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 29, 2010 at 7:15 AM
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Not having obtained an advance copy of the menu for today's Hot Stove Luncheon -- the Friday highlight of the Nationals' Winter Caravan -- there's no telling whether chili will be a prominent feature of the noon meal as it's been on Wednesday and Thursday.

But the Friday event is scheduled to feature a number of prominent Nats, including first baseman Adam Dunn, pitchers Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen and Ryan Speier, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and outfielders Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan.

They'll be joined by team president Stan Kasten, general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman as well as MASN color commentator Rob Dibble.  Master of ceremonies will be Nats season-ticket holder and Meet the Press moderator David Gregory.

If you fail to score a ticket to the luncheon, you can try stopping by Verizon Center at 6:00 before the NHL Capitals host the Florida Panthers at 7:00.  The front-office folks and Gregory won't be there.  However, the gathering -- which is slated to include all the players named above except Zim -- will be augmented by pitchers Matt Capps, Brian Bruney and Tyler Clippard and minor-league middle infielder Danny Espinosa as well as by several nearby chili options including the Greene Turtle next door, Rosa Mexicano across F Street and Austin Grill at 8th and E.

     

Chili and Nats, day two (and Pfitz stop)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 27, 2010 at 10:15 PM
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The cradle of chili in the D.C. region will be the Nationals' kickoff stop on the second day of their Winter Caravan.

As on Wednesday, fans will have the chance to meet Nats manager Jim Riggleman, December free-agent bullpen acquisition Ryan Speier, minor-league infielder Danny Espinosa, number-two 2009 draft pick Drew Storen and MASN color commentator Rob Dibble, this time at Ben's Chili Bowl, 1213 U Street NW, at noon on Thursday.  For chili fans, there's no need to get fancy:  simply order a Bill Cosby's Original half smoke, along with a side of cheese fries.  (There are also tasty veggie options for the chili-averse or the artery-conscious.)

If your schedule won't let you get up to U Street at lunch time, you can swing down to Woodbridge where the Caravan will be making a stop at G. William Pfitzner Stadium, 7 County Complex Court, from 6:00 to 8:00 p.m. on Thursday evening.  While there won't be any food or refreshments at the Pfitz, chili needs can be fulfilled beforehand or afterwards at several of the 150 or so eateries within a four-mile radius including the Red Robin and Famous Dave's over by Potomac Mills Mall.

     

Chili and Nats, day one (with added bears)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 27, 2010 at 10:00 AM
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If you've looked over the itinerary for the Nationals' Winter Caravan you may have noticed some bias toward chili on the menu.

The gastronomic journey will begin Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 at the Hard Times Cafe at 3028 Wilson Boulevard in Arlington (Metro:  Clarendon), where you can meet Nats manager Jim Riggleman, December free-agent bullpen acquisition Ryan Speier, minor-league infielder Danny Espinosa, number-two 2009 draft pick Drew Storen and MASN color commentator Rob Dibble.

While at Hard Times, this columnist would probably seize the opportunity to mow down some chili nachos or five-way, although their menu contains a reasonable number of other options if chili happens not to be your thing.

Should you need a Nats fix but not be able to make lunch, you might try swinging by the Build-a-Bear Workshop on the second level of Tysons Corner Center where the aforementioned crew will be appearing from 6 to 7 p.m. Wednesday evening.