It's time to move on from Guzman

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jan. 14, 2010 at 5:02 PM
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I'm usually one of the more forgiving online commentators, but I'm going to divert from my usual kindly self and echo the call I know others have put out - it's time for Cristian Guzman to go, or at least not be the starting shortstop anymore.

I know, Guzman is only 31.  I know, he had 151 hits last season for a .284 BA, which was 4th best on the team behind Nyjer Morgan, Nick Johnson, and Ryan Zimmerman.

I also know that he's showing diminished range at SS, and that many of his hits were singles.  He only managed to bat in 52 runs, and had the same number of sacrfices (6) as home runs.  In other words, he's average at best, and his impact is statistically inflated by his lack of extra base hits.

There's been a lot of discussion this offseason about a proposed move to 2B, and to let Ian Desmond play SS, but only if the Nats don't sign another 2B, like Adam Kennedy or Orlando Hudson.

It's my opinion that we move on from the Guzman era in DC, and embrace the infielding future.  Let's do both - sign a Hudson or Kennedy, start Desmond at SS, and trade Guzman.  We've got Eric Bruntlett to play utility infielder, so we have some depth in case of injury.

When you look at the numbers (Thanks, Chico/Nats Journal), you see that "Bill James predicts for Hudson this upcoming season: 550 AB, .280 AVG, .353 OBP, .409 SLG, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 96 Ks, 7 SBs."  Hudson looks like a better defending Guzman, right?  "James predicts for Desmond: 518 AB, .282 AVG, .338 OBP, .432 SLG, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 102 Ks, 25 SBs."  Basically a young clone of the above, but with better speed on the basepaths.

Look - the Nats are not going to make the postseason this year.  2010 is all about finding the parts that work and running with them for 2011, while playing better than 2009.  So why are they starting someone who won't be here in 2011?  Sure, you may get more errors out of SS than Guzman (debatable), but same as with Ryan Zimmerman at 3B, you accept a few more errors so that you can get the more spectacular plays and improved range.

Some "contender" (cough, Mets, cough) is going to be looking for a middle infielder this spring, or someone is going to get injured, so why not open up Guzman to the market for a A or AA level prospect?  They should not be looking for the next Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, more like a younger Alberto Gonzalez (who should be a solid bench guy this season).

Make sense to you?  Am I nuts?  Comment up below.

     

The Season Opening Starting Rotation, Sans Chapman

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jan. 12, 2010 at 10:53 AM
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MASN's Phil Wood had a good article about the potential starting rotation now that Aroldis Chapman has signed with the Reds, which got me thinking, since I didn't quite agree with his projected group.

Wood went with Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Doug Davis (still a FA), Scott Olsen and J.D. Martin.  Certainly not a bad rotation, and it makes sense to pencil in another Free Agent signee into the 3rd starting spot. 

I'm with him on Marquis, Lannan, and a Free Agent as 1-2-3 (though maybe not that order, as I think the Nats want Lannan to be the #1 as the most fan recognized pitcher).  It's 4-5 that get me.  I'm not buying Olsen's full recovery yet, something we'll need evidence of in Spring Training.  He's also still relatively young, so I can see the Nats taking their time with him and starting him out in AAA.

J.D. Martin was certainly decent last year, but he's a control guy with a 4.44 ERA and a tendency for the long ball.  I'm not sure any of that adds up to the 5th starter spot when you have other options out there.

I think you can pencil in Craig Stammen for one of the starting spots, unless he regresses.  Sure his 5.11 ERA last year was worse than Martin's, but he had fewer homers given up while throwing more innings and had a lower opponents batting average.  You'd think an improved defense would help Stammen lower his numbers to a greater extent than Martin.

I also still think the 5th spot is up in the air.  If Olsen isn't ready, then a mix of Martin, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, Stephen Strasburg, and Ross Detwiler all get a shot.  I'm not ready to write off Shairon Martis yet either.  It'll come down to who has the best camp.  I think longer shots are a rehabbing Matt Chico and the player from the Nick Johnson trade, Aaron Thompson.

Right now I'll say my rotation is Lannan, Marquis, Free Agent, Stammen, and Mock.  Olsen, Martin, Balester, Detwiler, and Strasburg make up your AAA rotation, with Olsen or Martin first up for an MLB injury call-up.  Martis, Chico, and Thompson start at AA, unless one moves to the bullpen.

All of this will set up quite a battle next year, when Jordan Zimmermann is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, and the Nats might actually sport a real major league rotation - though the projected for this season is close.

And I know many of you are ready for Strasburg to open the season, but I don't see it.  They want to bring him along slowly and make sure he's ready before tossing him to the major league wolves.  I do think it's likely he makes the bigs this season, but not right away.

What's your projected rotation?  Comment up below.

     

Nats Acquire Brian Bruney from Yanks

Posted by Michael Kanick on Dec. 7, 2009 at 1:02 PM
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First Tweeted by @nyp_joelsherman, then picked up by the ever-wonderful MLB Trade Rumors.  Yanks will get the famous PTBNL (PLyer to be named Later).

Bruney has a fairly strong arm and was once thought to have been part of the Yankee future, but was inactive for much of the playoffs this past season after being hit with the injury bug.  He's a mid-high 90's Fastball pitcher with a mid-80's curve who is usually effective for and inning, give or take a batter.

As @kevin_reiss (Past a Diving Vidro) said on twitter, there is no real way to evaluate the fairness of the deal until the PTBNL is known, but Bruney should be in the late-inning mix for the Nats and may just need a change of scenery to return to his successful ways.  It's likely a smart, low cost, low risk addition to the 2010 Nats.

More as it happens in the slowly warming hot stove...

UPDATE 1:10pm: NY Times' Tyler Kepner reporting that Bruney is due salary arbitration.

UPDATE 3:32pm: NY Daily News' Mark Feinsand is reporting that the PTBNL might be the Nats 1st rd Rule 5 draft pick

     

Alumni Watch: Phils sign Schneider

Posted by Michael Kanick on Dec. 1, 2009 at 1:08 PM
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The Phillies today signed C Brian Schneider, formerly of the Mets, to be their backup catcher.  The longtime Expo/Nat went to the Mets with Ryan Church as part of the Lastings Milledge deal (who then brought Sean Burnett and Nyjer Morgan from Pittsburgh).

More Hot Stove as it develops.

     

The Nats minor league Free Agents

Posted by Michael Kanick on Nov. 19, 2009 at 12:35 PM
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Out for the highest bidder, courtesy of Baseball America.  You can view the full team-by-team list here.

Washington Nationals (22)
RHP: Clint Everts (AAA), Andrew Kown (AAA), Chris Rivera (Lo A)
LHP: Justin Jones (AA), Horacio Ramirez (AAA), Dave Williams (AAA)
C: Gustavo Molina (AAA), Luke Montz (AAA)
1B: Adam Amar (SS), Brad Eldred (AAA), Daryle Ward (AAA), Matt Whitney (AAA)
2B: Ofilio Castro (AA), Jemel Spearman (AA), Marco Yepez (AAA)
3B: Kory Casto (AAA), Joel Guzman (AA)
SS: Freddie Bynum (AA)
OF: Edgardo Baez (AA), Norris Hopper (AAA), Ricardo Nanita (AA), Jorge Padilla (AAA)

Anyone worth keeping?  Brad Eldred may be a good backup until Chris Marrero arrives, but that's about it.

An interesting name from another team?  RHP Humberto Sanchez, someone die hards will remember as a can't-miss prospect from Detroit during the Alfonso Soriano talks, who later went to the Yankees and never became much.

     

The Choice is Mediocrity

Posted by Michael Kanick on Nov. 12, 2009 at 5:10 PM
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Now that Jim Riggleman has been announced as the non-interim manager of the Washington Nationals, it's clear that the choice is one of getting-along to go-along.

We should be clear - this is not a strong move, no matter how the team decides to spin it.  Even though he inherited a team playing better than it was at the beginning of the season, Riggleman is being praised (?!?!) for running up a 33-42 record.  Granted, that's a better winning percentage than Manny Acta had, but then again, Acta had a larger sample size and didn't have much time with solid reliver Sean Burnett or Nyjer Morgan in Center - in fact, Acta had to start the season with Lastings Milledge in CF, which would hamper anyone's winning percentage.

I'm not saying Bobby Valentine, Don Mattingly, Bob Melvin, or Bo Porter (who? Bo Porter! who?) would have been any better - in fact, that's my basic point.  This is an organization that has, for now, chosen mediocrity - assuming that it'll have at least 2 more season of at or sub .500 baseball - so why ruin another Manny Acta potentially rising star with a bad team?

Listen, I wish "Riggo II" all the best - at least he has a nickname built for DC.  But his record speaks for itself.  I hope he's a better teacher than manager, because the best job he could do now is teach a young team to play the right way, and set the Nats up for future success.

Because it isn't coming next season.

     

Who should go, Where, and Who to replace them?

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 29, 2009 at 12:05 PM
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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we see a lot of speculation in the media about deals and hear a lot of fans (professional and otherwise) give their thoughts on who should be traded, where they should go, and who can replace them.  Here's mine:

• Nick Johnson (.295, 6HRs, .812 OPS) should go to Texas, since the 1Bs have been terrible this season, with a combined On Base Percentage nearly .100 points below Nick's. Brad Eldred (AAA, .279, 14 HRs, .848 OPS) could be a decent replacement, and is deserving of a shot.  He's not a defensive whiz, but he's better than Kory Casto.


• Josh Willingham (.298, 16HRs, 1.006 OPS) should go to Philly, since they lack a right-handed hitter on the bench and have a deep group of prospects to give, even if they deal for Roy Halladay.  Elijah Dukes (.244, 6 HRs, .780 OPS AAA) is deserving of one more shot before either being given a chance or being cut loose.  If the Nats are going to trade him away, he needs another MLB showcase.


• Adam Dunn (.278, 26HRs, .959 OPS) would be a surprisingly good fit in Boston, where David Ortiz is hitting .230 and seems to lack the ability to get on base.  Remember, this is a franchise that has dumped team leaders/fan favorites Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Johnny Damon before, so it's not out of the realm of possibility for them to turn Big Papi into a bench player and DH Dunn, who has the power to a deep right at Fenway and the bat control to flip it over the Monster in left. Austin Kearns would be the likely fill in, since it doesn't look like he'll get Designated For Assignment and 8 million is too much money to leave on the bench.


• Joe Biemel (3.43 ERA, 10 H, 1 S) should get his wish and go back to the Dodgers, who don't seem to need much and could use him in the playoffs.  He'd also be relatively cheap.  Saul Rivera (2.95 ERA in AAA) is a good candidate to come back, since it appears he may have gotten his issues sorted out.  The fact that he isn't back already, however, is a concern - he may have played himself out of favor with the current regime.


• Willie Harris (utility play, attitude) would be a good fit for a contender like Detroit, either Chicago team, or either LA franchise.  In addition, he deserves a shot at a title run, even if he just comes back to the Nats later on.  Mike Morse (AAA, .352, 2hrs, .947 OPS) was not acquired from Seattle to play only at AAA, he'll be a bench player for the Nats in the future.


• Christian Guzman (.299 4HRs .717 OPS) is a plus bat with minus defense that could go to a contender who needs offensive help from the SS position.  Detroit, Minnesota, or the Cubs all look like they could use him, and he may be wearing out his welcome in DC with his lackluster defense.  Maybe a pennant race would wake him up.  Ian Desmond (AAA .325, 3 SBs, .826 OPS in only 12 games) looks to have adjusted to AAA very quickly and would be a prime candidate to play SS the rest of the season, allowing Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez to split duties at 2B.

Notably absent from this discussion?  Mike MacDougal, Ron Villone, and Ronnie Belliard.  I don't see Macdougal being worth much, and maybe he can ressurect his career here.  In addition, who else would close?  Drew Storen is, at best, a September call-up this season.  Villone could be had for a song, and maybe someone will be desperate enough come August, and the Nats can slip him through waivers.  Belliard's time here has ended, he should be DFA'd - something that is nearly a month overdue.

Questions, Comments, Hate Messages?  Please comment below.

     

Another trade partner fades away

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 28, 2009 at 12:46 PM
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SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting that the SF Giants have acquired 1B Ryan Garko from the Cleveland Indians for an A-level pitcher.  Again, this small move impacts the Nats since it seemingly takes away a landing spot for Josh Willingham or Nick Johnson. 

Garko is a decent talent, but I would rate him below Willingham and Johnson.  That being said, Garko's low cost does not portend great things for the Nats trade deadline.  With the Giants and Cardinals off the table, some of the more likely teams are now off the radar.  I'd keep your eyes open for the Red Sox, who are rumored to want San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez, but who could take Nick Johnson as a backup plan. 

Speaking of AL teams, the defending AL champion Rays might also need some offense after falling to 7 1/2 back of the Yankees last night.  The Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Cubs, and Rockies shouldn't be counted out either.  I'd include Atlanta, but I doubt the offensively challenged Braves could get the Nats to deal within the division.

More as it happens on deadline week...

BREAKING UPDATE (3:55pm):  Jon Heyman elaborated on the Giants in a more recent news item, saying "The Giants, who just acquired Ryan Garko on Monday from the Indians, tried for Nick Johnson but were told it would take Jonathan Sanchez in a package, and so they decided to go with Garko."

This gives us a good idea of what Rizzo and Kasten are asking for.  Does this mean they are turning off other teams in a Bowden-esque fashion?

     

Breaking: Matt Holliday headed to St. Louis

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 24, 2009 at 1:33 PM
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According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, Matt Holliday is going from Oakland to St. Louis for 3 highly valued prospects, including St. Louis' first picks from 2007 and 2008.

Why is this important for the Nats, you ask?  Well, St. Louis was rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn or Josh Willingham if they couldn't swing a deal for Holliday, so this removes a potential landing spot.

Though rumors on Dunn are few and far between, it's believed that Philadelphia still has interest in Willingham (they need a RH Bat) and that Nick Johnson could still go to San Francisco.

Stay tuned for more as it happens.

     

Riggleman - a welcome to the "interim plan"

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 14, 2009 at 3:17 PM
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Jim Riggleman, come on down - you're the next contestant on "Manage the Washington Nationals".

Hopefully, I'm not the only one who feels like this is some absurd game show (which it kind of is), but that isn't exactly reason to despair.  Believe me, if you follow the natmosphere on Twitter, you'd think the world has ended (special thanks to @Half-Street, @NFA_Brian, @Needham_chris, and @kevin_reiss) - but it hasn't, at least not in my opinion.

Welcome to what newly minted Washington Post columnist Tracee Hamilton has dubbed "the interim plan".  Believe me, Jim Riggleman is a big part of it.

I know Hendo is pretty upset and against Riggleman as a solution, but I come to offer solace to the masses.  This is all part of Interim GM Mike Rizzo's interim plan.

We can all recite, at this point, Riggo(II)'s bio - this is his fourth managing stint, mainly as fill-ins, despite his playoff season in Cubbie-land in 1998.  No, he's not an inspiring choice, but he's got two things going for him - (1) experience taking over a bad team, and (2) he's been there all season.

Riggo (II) doesn't have to waltz into the room unknown.  He doesn't come in not knowing what to do with a team like this that he inherits.  He knows the players, the front office, the staff.  He hit the ground running from day one.  He's an unspectacular, unsuprising, likely solid choice.

Sound familiar?

The move is classic Rizzo.  What did he do a few weeks ago?  Traded dead wood for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett, both of whom have played as good as expected, if not better.  Solid, experienced, not loved immediately by the natmosphere, but ultimately successful. 

Is Riggleman the long term solution?  No, I like Jeff's list much better - especially Gibson or Foli.  However - will Riggleman perform in the second half?  I think so.

Welcome to "The Interim Plan".