Assessing the Landscape for 2010

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Nov. 18, 2009 at 3:04 PM
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Free Agency looms large for the Nationals in 2010, not just because of another 100 loss season, rather because the team is at a crossroads of identifying what type of organization they would like to going forward.  Many teams run out for the best player, or the flashiest splash, only to realize later on that the huge investment did not help their team.  It is more important for a team to take stock of their strengths and weaknesses and use free agency as a means to make changes.

So, before we dive into to suggest who the Nats should sign and what their lineup should look like, let's tackle this offseason as if we were members of the front office. To do this, let us look at the Nationals ranking in Offensive VORP, Pitching VORP and Defensive Efficiency, as ranked by Baseball Prospectus. 

The reason for these statistics is that when evaluating the leaders for all three categories, the teams that rise to the top are playoff teams (Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals) while the top 6 all represent teams that vied for the wild card (Cubs, Giants, Rockies).  This goes to show that the stastical value of Hitting and Pitching VORP as well as Defensive Efficiency has some correlation to the Win-Loss record of a team.  Below are scores for each team and their subsequent ranking in each area:

As you can see, the Nationals as a team are tied for last in total ranking in all three areas, and the Nationals ranking in Pitching and Defense tells the story of why this team struggled so mightily in 2009.

So in looking at this, where should the Nats focus their attention? On adding Dan Uggla to the team (good god no)? Trying to get a ground ball pitcher like Chien Ming Wang (maybe) without bolstering the defense (good god no)?  These numbers indicate that the Nationals need to upgrade the team defense while also adding some reliable arms to the starting rotation as well as to the bullpen as the top priority. The Nationals -17 VORP rating for pitchers informs you that this staff performed WORSE than a team full of replacements.  So, when you hear the names Doug Davis, Jon Garland and Randy Wolf, do not be dissappointed, as they are all ABOVE the caliber of replacement players, and that is what this team needs to turn the corner.

In the coming weeks, I aim to tackle each free agent idea out there for the Nationals and look at what their VORP looks like for the next few years, and how their performance can help improve this team in all three areas.   Tentative List:

Week of November 16th - Orlando Hudson, Adam Everett

Week of November 23rd - John Lackey, Mike Gonzalez

Week of November 30th - Jarrod Washburn, Rich Harden, Billy Wagner