Early trade reviews can be laughable

Posted by Michael Kanick on Jul. 1, 2009 at 1:50 PM
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It's certainly the norm to expect online media professionals like ourselves (or others in the Natmosphere) to provide instant analysis of moves, and to expect that the traditional media do it as well.  However, in the light of the recent trade between the Nats and the Pirates, I wanted to highlight this process a bit.

Examples of instant analysis of the recent Milledge/Hanrahan for Morgan/Burnett can be found here (NY Post's Sherman), here (Pirates blogger), here (MLB Trade Rumors), and here (ESPN's Rob Neyer). They are fairly universal in their praise for the Pirates in making a good deal and "winning".

However, let's step in the way back machine and dial up the summer of 2006.  On July 14th, Trader Jim Bowden dealt pitchers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, infielders Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and prospect Daryl Thompson for Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner.  Instant analysis here, here, and here all declared the Nats "winners".  Yes, even I did - though I did qualify it.

What's my point?  Instant analysis can't totally be relied upon.  Sure, if it's obvious - like if the Nats were to acquire Mark Teixiera from the Yankees for Elijah Dukes (I'm laughing maniacally at the thought).  That would be an easy one to assess.  Look at 2006 however - Lopez was a disaster here, but is playing decently for Arizona now.  Kearns has been a disappointment, and Wagner is retired.  Did the Nats really win?

In the end, this is a break even deal - potential for production, plus giving Hanrahan a new shot elsewhere while acquiring a solid lefty to replace him (who has an easy contract and is locked until 2012).  The only thing to change the equation would be Milledge finally getting that together.

Do any of us see that happening anytime soon?

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Tags: truth and rumors, transactions, Trades, Ryan Wagner, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, Sean Burnett, Nyjer Morgan, Joel Hanrahan, Lastings Milledge, way back machine, jim bowden,



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Mike is a life-long baseball fan and a founding co-editor of NationalsPride.com.  After moving to DC after college he has carried on his passion for the sport by playing virtual GM in video games and losing in fantasy leagues all while combing the sports pages and blogs for minute, yet cool, obscure facts. Mike still maintains his "since the womb" Yankees allegiance, but follows and reports on his new "hometown" team with rabid interest. Mike can be found wandering either Capitol Hill or Silver Spring, mumbling about free agent pickups and the best starting rotation.


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