Eight Mondays to go: Projecting the Nationals' starting pitchers

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 8, 2010 at 6:15 AM
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At the SABR meeting in Rosslyn the other weekend, this columnist unveiled a National League East forecast that showed the Nats logging 75 wins.

Some number of those wins will be recorded by the Opening Day starting rotation in that forecast, which contained these names:

• Jason Marquis
• John Lannan
• Garrett Mock
• Craig Stammen
• Scott Olsen

A knowledgeable-looking member of the audience raised his hand and intoned confidently: "There is no way that list is going to win 75 games."

Legitimate objections to the 75-win assertion abound.

For one thing, where's Stephen Strasburg on that list?  (Prediction:  He's on the way, just not at the beginning of April.)  And Miguel Batista?  (Prediction:  He could easily displace Stammen, or Olsen if the latter's not all the way back to full strength.)  And just-signed Shawn Estes?  (Prediction:  He'll be retiring to Arizona; despite having inked a minor-league contract, he doesn't really want to pitch in triple-A and he's not pitching in the majors.)

How did last season's Opening Day rotation end up performing in terms of wins -- and, while we're at it, durability?

That's an easy answer to provide, if not necessarily a pleasant one.  The table below lists the wins and innings logged by each of the first five pitchers that started for the Nats in 2009.  (Here's a link if you're interested in seeing the numbers for the whole league.)

In general, you can depend on your five top starters leaving Spring Training to give your team about half its innings and half its wins.  (So the roster shown at top would be on the hook for only 37 or 38 wins, not 75.)  The rest will come from triple-A callups and from the bullpen.

But in 2009, the Nats were one of only four teams in the National League (Los Angeles, Philadelphia and San Diego were the other three) that had to call on pitchers other than their five Opening Day starters to log them 40 or more wins.  (Relievers Tyler Clippard and Ron Villone and triple-A promotees Stammen and JD Martin -- who's also a candidate for the Opening Day rotation -- accounted for 18 of those 40 added wins for the Nats.)  And Washington was also the only team other than San Diego that got fewer than 500 total innings during the season from its Opening Day five.

What killed the Opening Day rotation (excluding Lannan, who presumably nailed a horseshoe over his door)?  The bad news can be recapped in few words: Martis' control slipped, Cabrera never had any, and Olsen's shoulder and Zimmermann's elbow got torn up.

And what made things worse was that, bad as the Opening Day 2009 rotation was, the bullpen was even worse.  The numbers hardly matter; what's important is that none of the relievers with whom the Nats left Viera in April is still with the team.  (Defense mattered as well; we never get tired of talking about it.)

We'll have a look at the projected 2010 relief corps in the next installment of this feature.  As for the starters we'll be seeing in a couple of months, the list at the top of this column -- give or take a Batista or a Martin -- looks a bit more like the core of a 75-win team than the names we were looking at a year ago, wouldn't you agree?  (Or if you don't agree, which is perfectly reasonable, what names would you choose?)

     

Next stop: 1912

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 5, 2010 at 10:05 PM
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A few days ago we noted that the National Hockey League's Washington Capitals had set a franchise record with their eleventh consecutive victory.  And on Friday night they went a step further, winning their 13th game in a row to match the baseball victory streak that the American League champion-to-be Washington Senators unreeled in August 1933.

What's left for the Caps to prove?  If they can string together four more victories, they'll match the longest winning streak of any Washington major-league sporting franchise:  the 17 straight wins that the Senators put up between Thursday, May 30, and Tuesday, June 18, 1912.

Would such a streak, as it later would in 1933, avail the Nats an AL pennant?  Alas, no:  Washington's 91 victories in 1912 left them a distant second, 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox who won an astounding 105 of the 154 games they played that season on their way to a World Series victory over the New York Giants.

Where, by the way, did the American League's New York franchise finish in 1912?  Dead last with 102 losses -- another mark with which Washington sports fans are, more recently, sadly familiar.

     

Q&A with Washington Baseball Historian Stephen J. Walker

Posted by Mark Hornbaker on Feb. 5, 2010 at 6:35 AM
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Last summer I read Stephen J. Walker’s book "A Whole New Ballgame: The 1969 Washington Senators". I enjoyed the book as it brought back so many memories of a special time in Washington baseball history. I enjoyed the book so much I contacted Mr. Walker to find out if we could do a Question & Answer session together.

Below are some questions from History's Perspective and answers from Stephen J. Walker.

· A Whole New Ballgame

Mark, many thanks for the opportunity to tell you a little bit more about my book and the story behind its creation and publication. The players and coaches, even the bat boys and broadcasters, are people of great honor and class. They worked hard under Ted Williams and exceeded everyone’s expectations, probably even their own, with an 86 win season. More important, they gave people in Washington, D.C., a city suffering from riots, tension, and the contentious politics surrounding Vietnam, something to celebrate and enjoy.

When did you first come up with the idea to write this book?

I came up with the idea to write A Whole New Ballgame in 1995, during the infamous government shutdown. I worked for the government and the budget battles between President Clinton and the Republican congress left me at home, with nothing to do.

The 1969 Senators team had always fascinated me. A few years before 1995, I re-played the Senators’ entire season with Strat-O-Matic baseball and learned about unsung heroes like Jim French, Hank Allen, Dennis Higgins, Casey Cox and Dave Baldwin.

Also, as a young boy in 1969-71, my father took me to several Senators’ games with my buddies in the neighborhood. That’s where gentleman like Frank Howard, Dick Bosman, Darold Knowles, Paul Casanova, and Ken McMullen became my childhood heroes. On autograph day, I met Ed Stroud, so he became one of my favorites. I liked Mike Epstein as well because he hit left-handed and played first base, just like I did in little league.

Once I started researching the team and reading the newspaper accounts on microfilm, I knew the 1969 Senators lived a great story that I wanted to tell. Then, when I interviewed the players and coaches, beginning with Sid Hudson, and heard their personal stories of courage, humor, perseverance, and redemption, I became completely convinced that I needed to tell their stories in print. After many years of drafts, procrastination, and moving files from one computer to another, I finally realized my dream in April 2009. It felt appropriate to have the book come out within a week of the 40th anniversary of the 1969 Presidential Opener on April 7.

Why write a book about the ’69 Senators?

The ’69 Senators played the best baseball anyone in Washington witnessed since the 1950s (and, sadly, ever since). They completely surprised the experts, who expected them to lose more than 100 games and perform worse than even the two American League expansion teams, the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Pilots. Their 86-76 record filled the Washington area with joy and set the stage for more fun in the fall when Lombardi’s Redskins went 7-5-2.

But more than wins and losses, the 1969 Senators just overflowed with amazing, poignant, and heartwarming story lines. Though he later proved a most vile villain, Bob Short thrilled Washington when he sweet talked Ted Williams out of retirement. Williams managed the players and the media better than anyone thought possible. Most people think he won by improving the team’s hitting, which he did. He also made the team’s pitching better by giving the pitching staff deep insight into how a hitter thinks. Of course, Knowles’ return from military service certainly helped, too.

After so much in Washington went wrong in 1968, many things went right in 1969, all with brand new men, Williams and Short at the top of what appeared to be a baseball renaissance in Washington, but ended up being a cruel mirage.

Still, the town really fell in love with the team. On one occasion, 1500 people flocked to the airport to cheer the team home from a winning road trip. Another time, fans gave Del Unser, Darold Knowles and other Senators in attendance a standing ovation during a showing of “Damn Yankees” at Burn Brae dinner theater. And after the season’s final game, the fans cheered the team with one final standing ovation.

How many players and or coaches did you interview for the book?

I interviewed two coaches, Wayne Terwilliger and Sid Hudson, 16 players, Brant Alyea, Bernie Allen, Hank Allen, Dick Bosman, Ed Brinkman, Dave Baldwin, Casey Cox, Jim French, Dennis Higgins, Frank Howard, Bob Humphreys, Darold Knowles, Lee Maye, Ken McMullen, Ed Stroud, Del Unser a team bat boy, Paul Oppermann, and radio voice Ron Menchine.

I also interviewed, Jim Hartley, President of the Washington Baseball Historical Society, and numerous other fans.

What was the toughest challenge in writing this book?

I faced two challenges that were equally daunting. First, I had to commit to the time to write the book. Writing is a solitary endeavor, so I needed to sacrifice time with my wife and family to finish the manuscript, revising, and editing. I have a wonderful wife and three boys. All were willing to give up time with me to support my dream of finishing the book.

Second, I had to overcome the fear of rejection and send book proposals to publishers. A friend told me to put all the rejection letters on the wall by my computer as a reminder to persevere, to have faith a book contract would eventually arrive, and to celebrate once an offer came. You can imagine how thrilled I was when an e-mail arrived with a contract attached from Pocol Press. I will always be grateful to them for agreeing to publish A Whole New Ballgame.

Do you have a favorite moment or time while you were writing the book?

Well, my favorite moment was finally, after 12 years, finishing the manuscript!

Four other moments stand out. My interview with Brant Alyea when he nearly choked up remembering the time Ted Williams gave him a brand new autographed bat. The pain in Lee Maye’s voice as he told me about being ignored for 10 years when he tried to catch on as a minor league hitting coach with any team that would take him. The passion in Dick Bosman’s voice as he recounted how much it meant to him to start the Presidential Openers in 1970-71. With the help of Allen Rice from the National Archives and Records Administration, finding the picture of Frank Howard on Opening Day that graces the book’s cover. RFK is resplendent with the red, white, and blue bunting and the packed stands.

Of course, nothing will top the moment last April when my family and I opened the first box of books Pocol Press sent me. At last, when I held the book in my hands, I knew my dream had become a reality.

· Washington Baseball

When did you first attend your first Washington major league baseball game?

My first game was July 15, 1969. The Senators defeated the Tigers. I remember Tim Cullen hit a home run. When I researched Retrosheet, I found out when the game took place. During my research for the book, I learned that the Tigers turned a triple play in the game and President Nixon attended. Not a bad way to start a lifelong passion for baseball in Washington!

What was your most memorable time at a Washington baseball game?

Other than my first game, two memories stand out. First, when my friends and I went to “Bat Day” and banged our bats on RFK’s concrete all game long. How my dad survived that, I’ll never know. The second was meeting Ed Stroud and some other players on the RFK Stadium outfield on Autograph and Picture Day. I was 8 years-old and you never forget those moments. My son experienced that last week at the Nationals’ Fan Fest when he met Josh Willingham, Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard, and Brian Bruney. By the way, my son handed Willingham his ball with Frank Howard's signature, among others. Willingham turned the ball over, looking for a place to sign. When he saw Hondo's signature, he looked at my son and said, "Wow! You've got Frank Howard's autograph on this ball." And he signed underneath it.

Who are your top three all time Washington ball players? Why are they your favorites?

Frank Howard is my all-time favorite Washington ball player. He was so huge, hit the ball so far, and caused such a buzz in the stadium when he came to bat. I’ll never forget it. I’ve met him many times since then and he is always a gentleman, patient and kind.

Darold Knowles is another favorite, because he is left-handed like me and because he pitched so well for the Senators. He was also a great gentleman when I interviewed him and has purchased a copy of the book. If you look at his overall records, it’s not a stretch to claim he was one of the greatest players ever to wear the expansion Senators’ uniform.

Since you said, “all-time” Washington players, I have to choose Walter Johnson. The “Big Train” gave DC it’s only World Series championship and is probably still the greatest right-hander of all-time.

From the Senators of my childhood, I also adored Ed Brinkman, Mike Epstein, Ed Stroud, Dick Bosman, and Paul Casanova.

· Today’s Nats

Do you think the Nationals’ are heading in the right direction?

I think the Nationals have been headed in the right direction the day they made Mike Rizzo the permanent general manager. It bodes well that they allowed him to hire a sizable staff, full of great baseball men like Davey Johnson. Their scouting and front office before this season was so small the team was at a huge disadvantage. Their mediocre amateur drafts and lack of international presence proves that.

So, to sum up, the Nats are finally headed in the right direction, but they still, in my opinion, have an awful long way to go to get to the 86-win level of the ’69 club.

Where do you think the Nationals’ have improved the most since the end of the ’09 season?

The pitching has been greatly improved with the additions of Jason Marquis, Matt Capps, Brian Bruney, and Tyler Walker. With Strasburg and Storen in the wings and, hopefully, Jordan Zimmerman at full strength in 2011, you have the makings of a good staff.

I also think Ivan Rodriguez is a huge upgrade at catcher. He’s one of those guys who does better than his statistics indicate. He instantly boosts the status and credibility of the franchise. A full season of Josh Willingham in left and Nyjer Morgan in center is an improvement over last season. I like Adam Dunn at first base. The bench is adequate, but not that talented, but still better than last year’s mess. At least, I hope so.

Where do you think the Nationals’ need more improvement?

Rizzo’s signings have improved the team a lot, but they need to do more. The minor league system is still too thin as many years of drafts have been squandered on high risk “toolsy” youngsters who won’t pan out. The Nationals simply must draft extremely well this season to catch up. An international signing or two wouldn’t hurt, either.

On the major league level, the pitching staff is still too thin and has too many “soft tossers.” There’s also not a lights out closer, at least not unless Drew Storen fulfills his potential. The middle infield is really weak unless or until they sign a strong free agent or Espinosa and Desmond defy the odds and both become stars. I’m not sold on Dukes in right field either. I think the team needs a left-handed power hitting outfielder to take some of the pressure off of Adam Dunn, who they need to lock up long term.

Steve, I want to thank you for taking the time to do this interview with me. I hope to see you a lot at Nationals Park this season.

Mark, it is my pleasure and thank you for the opportunity. I love talking Washington, DC baseball and, of course, the 1969 Washington Senators. Now that the game is back where it belongs, we can truly call baseball, the National Pastime!

     

Hudson not on way, Kennedy next (updated)

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 4, 2010 at 1:45 PM
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Veteran middle infielder Orlando Hudson, who had been long rumored to be on his way to the Washington Nationals, is apparently going elsewhere according to Bill Ladson at MLB.com who cites Minnesota as Hudson's most likely destination.

The present situation in Washington, which has been spending the offseason seeking a dependable veteran 2B/SS, would appear to present an opportunity for Adam Kennedy who had been reported as being interested in coming on board with Washington but also as waiting for the Nats and Hudson to reach (or fail to reach) agreement.

More as we learn it.

UPDATED 2/4/10 3:40 pm: Mark Zuckerman, late of the Times, hears that the Nats are giving Kennedy a look but are willing to stand pat with Ian Desmond at shortstop and Cristian Guzman at second base, as they've been saying since the end of last season…

UPDATED 2/4/10 6:30 pm: Curtis Kitchen of Sports Radio 810 WHB in Kansas City tweets that the Hudson-Twins deal is done and that he hears Hudson wanted at least twice the money from the Nats that he'll get from Minnesota…

UPDATED 2/4/10 7:40 pm: Not so fast on the reported Minnesota discount -- Buster Olney of ESPN hears that Hudson's getting a $5 million deal from the Twins…

UPDATED 2/5/10 6:20 am: That didn't take long -- Kennedy has been signed to play second, reports Ladson. All indicators now point to having Guzman remain at shortstop and Desmond start at triple-A Syracuse…

     

The last time this happened

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 3, 2010 at 10:25 AM
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If you're a fan of the Washington Capitals you're probably feeling pretty smug right now.  And even if you're not a puck fan, it's hard to miss what's been going on at Verizon Center.

The Caps, who have rocketed to NHL dominance with the aid of their young players and the even but firm guidance of coach Bruce Boudreau, have just won their 11th game in a row.  Having just set a franchise record for consecutive wins, the team now leads the entire NHL with 82 points and holds a commanding 25-point lead over the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning and Atlanta Thrashers in the NHL's Southeast Division.

The Caps, of course, would be thrilled to bring home a Stanley Cup in June.  In the meantime, is there another record within shouting distance at which the Caps can aim?

Here's one to try for:  In 1933, the Washington Senators won 13 games in a row from Tuesday, August 8, through Sunday, August 20.  The streak included ten wins against then-anemic Chicago, Boston and St. Louis, but also three against the mighty Yankees.

That streak, as Dan Steinberg of the Post's D.C. Sports Bog points out, was one of the highlights of a year that worked out pretty well for Joe Cronin's Nats, who went to the World Series that October (just as eleven-game winning streaks would punctuate Super Bowl seasons for the Redskins years later).

For what it's worth, 1933 was the fourth and last in a series of campaigns in which the that Senators franchise -- which departed Washington for Minnesota after the 1960 season -- would log at least 90 wins, no mean feat over a 154-game season.  Except for the war years of 1943 and 1945 in which the Nats won 84 and 87 games respectively, the team would only once (in 1936, when they went 82-71) again record as many as 80 victories in a Washington uniform.  (See the comments for notes on the expansion Senators.)

     

Nine Mondays to go: Projecting the 2010 NL East

Posted by Mike Henderson on Feb. 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
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It's been a busy weekend.  Check out all the great stuff that NationalsPride.com managing editor Ian Koski caught and photographed at the Nationals' Winter Caravan this Friday and at Sunday's NatsFest.

Also, yours truly was privileged to have the opportunity to speak this past Saturday in Rosslyn at the annual meeting of the Bob Davids Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research.

That provided an opportunity to start unrolling a set of predictions for what the Nationals will accomplish in 2010.  Not only were there quite a few Nats fans in the SABR audience, but Baseball Prospectus had raised some eyebrows last week when they pegged the Nats to post a winning record of 82-80 in the coming season.

Some of those raised eyebrows were the result of BP computations that turned out to have gone awry; they've since revised their forecast to 81-81.  But whether the number in the W column is 81 or 82, does it make sense?

Not from the vantage point of this Hutch.  Here, as unveiled to the members and guests of SABR on Saturday, is a more sensible NL East projection.

Future installments of this feature will explain how the numbers in the above table are derived.  For now, here's a synopsis of why things rate to shake out that way.

• Phillies:  A fairly solid team that mostly successfully addressed a short list of offseason needs.  Rotation?  Check.  Third base?  Check.  Back of the bullpen?  We'll see.  (We'll also see what they do next offseason when their veteran pickups are a year older.)
• Braves:  They've still got an outfield situation to sort out.  And an aging third baseman. And Derek Lowe.  None of these things portends hope.
• Marlins:  While the members of the starting rotation are all old enough to get driver's licenses, not all can yet be trusted to keep the ball within the confines of the playground.
• Mets:  Presumably their hope is that a revivified Gary Matthews Jr. can tee off on NL pitching as he could not in Anaheim.  Despite having surrendered the services of Brian Stokes, they've still got Bobby Parnell and Nelson Figueroa to lean on and have further buttressed the relief corps with Clint Everts.  Good luck with that plan, Omar.
• Nats:  Largely free of distraction but also largely free of superior starting pitching.  Boppers and bullpen can respectively push the record closer to .500 and keep it there but the middle-infield defense will be the story of the year -- one whose ending the team is praying will be happier than it was in 2009.

What's your take?

UPDATED 01-Feb-2010 5:00 pm:  BP has tweaked their formula again and now says 76 wins…

     

Rizzo says Strasburg could still make Opening Day roster

Posted by Ian Koski on Jan. 31, 2010 at 7:32 PM
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Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo told reporters Sunday afternoon that it's still possible that the team's top pitching prospect, Stephen Strasburg, could be on the club's major league roster on Opening Day.

"I would say that if he's our best pitcher in spring training -- if he's one of our best five pitchers in spring training -- and we feel he's ready to pitch in the major leagues, then he'll pitch in the major leagues," Rizzo said.

Questions -- and predictions -- about the 21-year-old's future were a recurring theme at NatsFest.

"I see the level of excitement, for sure," Rizzo said. "But I can't be affected by the level of excitement. I've got to develop this player to the utmost of his ability and I have to make sure that he's developed in the best way to have long-term success."

Rizzo said he wasn't sure where in the farm system Strasburg might end up if he doesn't begin the season in Washington, but likened the situation to that of Jordan Zimmermann in 2009.

Despite a very strong showing in Spring Training, Zimmermann started the season in Triple-A Syracuse before being called up to the majors on April 20.

"We're certainly not naive enough to think that if this guy is going to be in the rotation and win us 'x' amount of games," Rizzo said Sunday, "that we're going to keep him in the minor leagues for any other reason than that he's not ready for the majors. That's the only reason he stays in the minor leagues."

"We're not going to rush players. We never rushed them in Arizona, but we did have people on the fast track in Arizona. He's penciled in to be a fast-track major-league player. I'm not sure where he starts this season. But the important thing isn't where you start the season, it's where you finish the season."

     

Kurkjian tells fans that Nats are moving 'in the right direction'

Posted by Ian Koski on Jan. 31, 2010 at 6:25 PM
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Speaking to a NatsFest crowd in the Red Porch on Sunday, ESPN baseball analyst Tim Kurkjian heaped praise on the Nationals' progress over the last year, but warned against expectations of a transformation as sudden and dramatic as the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

"The Rays' turnaround was unbelievable," Kurkjian said. "Their 10-year stretch was the worst 10-year stretch by any team in 60 years. Of any team in Major League Baseball. And then they went to the World Series. It was unbelievable what they did. So the thought that the Nationals or anyone else is going to do what the Rays did -- that happens about twice a century. That's it."

Kurkjian, a Bethesda native and a graduate of Walter Johnson High School, went on to emphasize the Nats were "going in the right direction."

"They've got people on the field that they didn't have last year. They've got people in the front office and the manager's office -- they're much more stable than it was at this time last year. Clearly. And this team is going in the right direction."

"Don't gauge them by where they finish in the standings or how many more wins they have," Kurkjian continued. "Just keep an eye on the players and see the ones going in this direction. There are way more going in this direction than they used to have, and that's a really good sign."

     

Photos from 2010 NatsFest

Posted by Ian Koski on Jan. 31, 2010 at 2:41 PM
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Just a few photos from 2010 NatsFest, underway now here at Nationals Park.

Manager Jim Riggleman laughs during his Q & A session at NatsFest.

John Lannan and Nyjer Morgan pose for a picture with fans at NatsFest.

Craig Stammen and Matt Capps are led through the crowd in the Stars & Stripes Club at NatsFest.

     

Photos from caravan stop at Verizon Center

Posted by Ian Koski on Jan. 31, 2010 at 12:37 PM
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The Nationals' winter caravan stopped at the Verizon Center Friday night to sign autographs for Capitals fans. Here are a few photos from one of the Nats' tables.